Unmentionables

There are two events in the news lately that I would like to mention.  The first is the death of Kim Jong Il.  The second is the protests going on in Russia.  If you are not interested in politics, you may want to skip this one.

Friends from high school may recall that I liked talking about Korea.  I am sure I more than annoyed several people, and am glad they decided to remain my friends regardless of my fanatical facination.  Other readers may be interested to know that my interest in Asia began with a project comparing North and South Korea.  I remember I created a cartoon slideshow showing the history of Korean leadership since the country was split in two in 1945.  One of the main themes I tried to show was that drastic changes have taken place in South Korea, while everything in North Korea remained almost exactly the same, including their president.  Well, today still the president of North Korea has not changed.^*  The big question is whether anything else will.

I personally don't think anything will happen soon.  All the major, shadowy figures in North Korea, as well as all the global powers outside North Korea have too much to loose if the area falls into chaos.  But given that Kim Jong Un is very young, and that he has not had much preparation for the position he is about to take, I could see the potential for collapse.  Though many have predicted this sort of thing in the past.  North Korea watching is exciting and boring because so much of it is based on speculation on shreds of evidence.  Any second could be the end of the country, the peninsula, or the world as we know it.  But that potential, which is highly intoxicating, has so far remained only potential.  We have no way of knowing until it is too late whether any of it has turned into anything.

In other news, there are the protests in Russia.  I remember as a teenager hearing my Uncle Matt talk about how they stuff the ballot boxes in Russia.  It is such a common occurrence, that it is little more than an annoying chore.   But now business as usual political corruption has lead to middle class protests.

The biggest question that comes to mind for me is the middle-class democratization theory.  I don't remember its formal name, if it has one.  Basically, this theory stipulates that in a society that lacks a middle-class, most citizens care more about their own economic well-being and don't care if that economic well-being is supplied by a democratic or non-democratic system.  Once there is a middle-class, however, that middle-class is comfortable enough that they don't need to spend as much time worrying about day to day expenses or the near future, but they are still concerned about the long term future, and want more control.  The middle-class tends to be filled by educated professionals, such as doctors, teachers, and business owners.  Such people hold more clout in society than other common protest groups, such as unskilled laborers or students.  Countries that have grown middle-classes that demanded reforms to liberalize their governments include South Korea and Taiwan.  There are other countries in the world that are developing their economies and suddenly have a middle-class.  I personally don't think change will happen soon in these countries, but if Russia should carry out reforms, it certainly would persuade me to think that it is possible in other countries too.

Also, I think I should mention I have read about these events on the New York Times and on The Economist.  I can't say for certain why they are not blocked.  I think it's a PR campaign to show how free information is here.  Adam has speculated that the people who check for inappropriate material on the internet probably don't have the best English.